Last night, a muse whispered in my ear. What if we tried something totally crazy? What if we drew a 5 mile radius circle centered on Lake Eola, specifically the fountain in the lake, and then converted every road inside the circle into a bicycle and pedestrian only path? It's a crazy, reckless and irresponsible idea, but it would be fascinating to see what this fantasy world would be like. Maybe it would give us a glimpse into the real or hidden costs of a car-centered transportation strategy. To be clear, this would be a 100% mode share for anything other than a motorized vehicle, which would trump the city with the highest mode share by nearly a factor of 4.
The circle would roughly reach Eatonville to the North, Pine Castle to the South, Azalea Park to the East and Pine Hills to the West.
This will not be an easy study, it will take months of careful evaluation, measurement and calculation to understand what this world might look like. But I have some ideas, some hypotheses if you will, about what this instant transformation might look like.
For the sake of argument, let's assume that the entire city is on board with this change, and as if by magic, one day the roads to their house, office, school, shopping centers were no longer accessible to their cars. Cars approaching the perimeter from the outside would find barriers with 'NO CARS BEYOND THIS POINT' signs.
Pre-Implementation - Most people would sell their cars, since they would have no place to house them, and they would be trapped within this radius, since no cars would be allowed on the streets. Some of the proceeds might go to a sturdy and reliable bicycle. Some might consider paying a nominal fee to store their cars on the outskirts of town if they were necessary, or if they did a lot of frequent regional travel.
Owners of car repair shops, gas stations, parking lots and parking structures would begin to wring their hands in mild panic, realizing that their businesses would be rendered redundant immediately, while other developers will salivate over the ability to build new residences, offices and retail spaces without the need to add parking structures or additional land to the expense.
Businesses that rely heavily on cars would have to reconsider where to locate, including areas for shipping and receiving, as well as car dealerships. People that worked well outside of the circle would have to seriously contemplate moving away. People excited about a town that revolves around cycling would find their way down to the city, like moths drawn to the flame.
Bicycle shops would run gang-busters! People would be stocking up on rides, accessories, tools, supplies, baby seats and baby carriers, trailers, baskets.
Day 1 - Instant reduction in ambient noise. No more car engines, loud mufflers, blaring stereos, horn honks (Orlando people love their horns). There would be an immediately noticeable difference. You would hear birds chirping, squirrels gnawing on acorns and nuts. At times, you might catch the faint rapid clicking of a freewheel on the back of a bicycle, maybe the occasional bicycle bell.
The local news would ditch the traffic segment of their morning report. Gone would be any news of delays of motor traffic, clogged up intersections or wrecks on I-4. The air would smell a little sweeter, there wouldn't be any NO2, unspent hyrdo-carbons or particular matter in the air, other than those generated outside the circle. The carbon monoxide and dioxide would be largely gone too, though those don't have much of a smell to them.
Gas stations and parking structures would have to shutter their doors permanently, and quickly figure out some novel alternative use for their land and capital, or else sell to more enterprising individuals. Some large percentage of the off street city would just be a sea of unused paving.
People living in the circle would find their bank accounts a little more full, with no need to pay for gas, parking, oil changes, other car maintenance and insurance. School Buses would sit idle, or sold off to some surrounding suburb outside of the circle. City Buses would sit idle as well. Parking enforcement would be rendered obsolete, no more towings, boots, city golf carts and green envelopes.
Stop lights would be replaced with all-way yield signs, eliminating any standing delays at intersections. Public works would be a much more svelte office in the city and Orange County. Law Enforcement would be free to focus on more serious criminal matters, and dedicate more of their resources to preserving the peace rather than traffic enforcement. Police and Fire Rescue response times would drop dramatically due to the lack of congestion caused by motor traffic. The courts would have new-found capacity due to a lack of traffic citations and criminal moving violations.
Due to the newfound complexity of bringing goods into the city, the price of consumable goods would increase slightly across the board.
Several Months In - The need for road repairs slows to a crawl, since the alternative methods of transportation cause so little wear and tear to the roads. The city's coffers fill from the cost savings. Big box retailers will have largely vacated the city center, and opted for sites just outside the perimeter where their reach is most effective, capturing business from those within and outside of the perimeter, while still being able to accept shipments from large trucks.
Critical repair services would be granted special license to operate vehicles within the city, but would have mandatory governors on their engines to restrict speeds to 15mph or less so as not to disrupt the normal flow of traffic, or create dangerous conflicts with cyclists and pedestrians. Phone use, food and drink would be strictly forbidden while operating these vehicles.
Small scale delivery services would pop up for groceries and other goods. Drone deliveries would pick up considerably, responding to the relative inconvenience of driving outside of the city to get certain basic goods.
The delivery of goods for sale and construction is clearly a necessity, arrangements would be made to purchase single use road permits within the city between the hours of 2:00am and 6:00am, the costs of which would offset any road damage caused by the wear and tear of the trucks. Truck traffic early in the morning would be confined to a limited number of roads to minimize disruption to residential areas. The city rezones parts of the land outside the perimeter for staging of deliveries during regular hours, so that normal commerce may continue at regular hours with the driving world outside.
Uber and Lyft will develop a special version of their ride sharing service involving the use of Pedicabs, and would also deploy electric scooters within the city. Services would arise to transport injured or sick people to hospitals or doctors offices, perhaps something like the e-Frogs or golf carts on special permits.
Home owners would find increasingly creative ways to convert garages into additional space or amenities for their homes, increasing their home values and thus tax revenue for the city. Some might be converted into rental units, helping to ease the housing shortage in the city, and helping to defray any costs from
Several Years In - The cost savings from the lack of maintenance on the roads will have paid off the repaving of the roads to be narrower and more suited to bicycle and e-scooter traffic. The roads are planned to be narrowed, with a substantial portion of the road to be converted to bio retention features with shade giving trees. This will reduce the size and complexity of the city's storm water management systems, and simultaneously reduce the heat island effect of the city, which regularly caused temperatures to be 3-4 degrees F higher than surrounding rural areas. This also has the benefit of making travel about the city more pleasant for pedestrians and cyclists.
Several smaller businesses have popped up throughout the area, responding to the inherent limitations of bicycling long distances. New, smaller cores of urbanity would pop up throughout the city, likely similar to the East End Market or Hourglass District. Families that live and work within the circle find that they get much more time back to spend with loved ones, due to shortened commutes, and the ability to ride with the family together about the city.
Vast portions of land previously dedicated to parking will slowly be converted into more useful spaces, including parks, plazas, residences, offices and shops. The costs of development per square foot will reduce overall due to the lack of required parking, and reduced storm water management facilities on private property. The city implements a reduced impact fee schedule due to infrastructure improvements and reduced costs, but makes more money on the whole due to increased density within the perimeter.
As an unintended consequence of this adopted transportation strategy, Orlando will become a spectacle, a tourist destination unto itself, due almost entirely to it's oddness as an American city that is no longer guided by the Automobile. Families will spend a few days at Disney or Universal, and then make time during their vacations to ride bicycles with their loved ones within this peaceful community. Foreign visitors not familiar with US traffic laws and norms would be right at home in the city, feeling confident to explore.
The city would erect an express transit system between MCO and the city within the perimeter, with only a limited number of stations, to ensure swift transportation for visitors and residents of the city. Uber Elevate takes a keen interest in the city, proposing skyports in select areas of the city.
A Decade In - The city and infrastructure mature, and a new economic paradigm has emerged. The scale of doing business and the pace of life have changed radically. Surrounding exurbs and towns have developed as hubs of commerce on the perimeter, serving as an interface for a vehicular and non-vehicular world. Within the city center, smaller businesses prevail due to the 'collector' areas for the business being smaller. Goods and services increase in costs slightly due to the inherent inefficiencies of a city relying entirely on alternative methods of transport.
Orlando has become the first American city to actually reverse the epidemic of obesity, and her major indicators of health will be substantially improved over those of other cities in Florida. Deaths that are attributable to DUI, reckless driving, distracted driving, air pollution and exposure to other risks carried by automobiles will be largely eliminated, driving up the average lifespan of her citizens substantially. Mild injuries would be up a fair amount, including broken bones and head injuries from reckless operation of bicycles, skateboards and e-scooters, but everyone could take solace in the fact that these are likely to be confined to the individual, and would be very unlikely to visit some unsuspecting bystander.
Car sharing and rental services are developed on the perimeter of the circle for city dwellers that wish to drive cross country outside of the city area, provided other means of travel are not preferred.
The traditional office and 9-to5 grind are slowly eliminated in favor of working remotely or from home. Several office buildings are converted into residential and retail spaces which ultimately yield more profit for real estate investors.
The circle would roughly reach Eatonville to the North, Pine Castle to the South, Azalea Park to the East and Pine Hills to the West.
This will not be an easy study, it will take months of careful evaluation, measurement and calculation to understand what this world might look like. But I have some ideas, some hypotheses if you will, about what this instant transformation might look like.
For the sake of argument, let's assume that the entire city is on board with this change, and as if by magic, one day the roads to their house, office, school, shopping centers were no longer accessible to their cars. Cars approaching the perimeter from the outside would find barriers with 'NO CARS BEYOND THIS POINT' signs.
Pre-Implementation - Most people would sell their cars, since they would have no place to house them, and they would be trapped within this radius, since no cars would be allowed on the streets. Some of the proceeds might go to a sturdy and reliable bicycle. Some might consider paying a nominal fee to store their cars on the outskirts of town if they were necessary, or if they did a lot of frequent regional travel.
Owners of car repair shops, gas stations, parking lots and parking structures would begin to wring their hands in mild panic, realizing that their businesses would be rendered redundant immediately, while other developers will salivate over the ability to build new residences, offices and retail spaces without the need to add parking structures or additional land to the expense.
Businesses that rely heavily on cars would have to reconsider where to locate, including areas for shipping and receiving, as well as car dealerships. People that worked well outside of the circle would have to seriously contemplate moving away. People excited about a town that revolves around cycling would find their way down to the city, like moths drawn to the flame.
Bicycle shops would run gang-busters! People would be stocking up on rides, accessories, tools, supplies, baby seats and baby carriers, trailers, baskets.
Day 1 - Instant reduction in ambient noise. No more car engines, loud mufflers, blaring stereos, horn honks (Orlando people love their horns). There would be an immediately noticeable difference. You would hear birds chirping, squirrels gnawing on acorns and nuts. At times, you might catch the faint rapid clicking of a freewheel on the back of a bicycle, maybe the occasional bicycle bell.
The local news would ditch the traffic segment of their morning report. Gone would be any news of delays of motor traffic, clogged up intersections or wrecks on I-4. The air would smell a little sweeter, there wouldn't be any NO2, unspent hyrdo-carbons or particular matter in the air, other than those generated outside the circle. The carbon monoxide and dioxide would be largely gone too, though those don't have much of a smell to them.
Gas stations and parking structures would have to shutter their doors permanently, and quickly figure out some novel alternative use for their land and capital, or else sell to more enterprising individuals. Some large percentage of the off street city would just be a sea of unused paving.
People living in the circle would find their bank accounts a little more full, with no need to pay for gas, parking, oil changes, other car maintenance and insurance. School Buses would sit idle, or sold off to some surrounding suburb outside of the circle. City Buses would sit idle as well. Parking enforcement would be rendered obsolete, no more towings, boots, city golf carts and green envelopes.
Stop lights would be replaced with all-way yield signs, eliminating any standing delays at intersections. Public works would be a much more svelte office in the city and Orange County. Law Enforcement would be free to focus on more serious criminal matters, and dedicate more of their resources to preserving the peace rather than traffic enforcement. Police and Fire Rescue response times would drop dramatically due to the lack of congestion caused by motor traffic. The courts would have new-found capacity due to a lack of traffic citations and criminal moving violations.
Due to the newfound complexity of bringing goods into the city, the price of consumable goods would increase slightly across the board.
Several Months In - The need for road repairs slows to a crawl, since the alternative methods of transportation cause so little wear and tear to the roads. The city's coffers fill from the cost savings. Big box retailers will have largely vacated the city center, and opted for sites just outside the perimeter where their reach is most effective, capturing business from those within and outside of the perimeter, while still being able to accept shipments from large trucks.
Critical repair services would be granted special license to operate vehicles within the city, but would have mandatory governors on their engines to restrict speeds to 15mph or less so as not to disrupt the normal flow of traffic, or create dangerous conflicts with cyclists and pedestrians. Phone use, food and drink would be strictly forbidden while operating these vehicles.
Small scale delivery services would pop up for groceries and other goods. Drone deliveries would pick up considerably, responding to the relative inconvenience of driving outside of the city to get certain basic goods.
The delivery of goods for sale and construction is clearly a necessity, arrangements would be made to purchase single use road permits within the city between the hours of 2:00am and 6:00am, the costs of which would offset any road damage caused by the wear and tear of the trucks. Truck traffic early in the morning would be confined to a limited number of roads to minimize disruption to residential areas. The city rezones parts of the land outside the perimeter for staging of deliveries during regular hours, so that normal commerce may continue at regular hours with the driving world outside.
Uber and Lyft will develop a special version of their ride sharing service involving the use of Pedicabs, and would also deploy electric scooters within the city. Services would arise to transport injured or sick people to hospitals or doctors offices, perhaps something like the e-Frogs or golf carts on special permits.
Home owners would find increasingly creative ways to convert garages into additional space or amenities for their homes, increasing their home values and thus tax revenue for the city. Some might be converted into rental units, helping to ease the housing shortage in the city, and helping to defray any costs from
Several Years In - The cost savings from the lack of maintenance on the roads will have paid off the repaving of the roads to be narrower and more suited to bicycle and e-scooter traffic. The roads are planned to be narrowed, with a substantial portion of the road to be converted to bio retention features with shade giving trees. This will reduce the size and complexity of the city's storm water management systems, and simultaneously reduce the heat island effect of the city, which regularly caused temperatures to be 3-4 degrees F higher than surrounding rural areas. This also has the benefit of making travel about the city more pleasant for pedestrians and cyclists.
Several smaller businesses have popped up throughout the area, responding to the inherent limitations of bicycling long distances. New, smaller cores of urbanity would pop up throughout the city, likely similar to the East End Market or Hourglass District. Families that live and work within the circle find that they get much more time back to spend with loved ones, due to shortened commutes, and the ability to ride with the family together about the city.
Vast portions of land previously dedicated to parking will slowly be converted into more useful spaces, including parks, plazas, residences, offices and shops. The costs of development per square foot will reduce overall due to the lack of required parking, and reduced storm water management facilities on private property. The city implements a reduced impact fee schedule due to infrastructure improvements and reduced costs, but makes more money on the whole due to increased density within the perimeter.
As an unintended consequence of this adopted transportation strategy, Orlando will become a spectacle, a tourist destination unto itself, due almost entirely to it's oddness as an American city that is no longer guided by the Automobile. Families will spend a few days at Disney or Universal, and then make time during their vacations to ride bicycles with their loved ones within this peaceful community. Foreign visitors not familiar with US traffic laws and norms would be right at home in the city, feeling confident to explore.
The city would erect an express transit system between MCO and the city within the perimeter, with only a limited number of stations, to ensure swift transportation for visitors and residents of the city. Uber Elevate takes a keen interest in the city, proposing skyports in select areas of the city.
A Decade In - The city and infrastructure mature, and a new economic paradigm has emerged. The scale of doing business and the pace of life have changed radically. Surrounding exurbs and towns have developed as hubs of commerce on the perimeter, serving as an interface for a vehicular and non-vehicular world. Within the city center, smaller businesses prevail due to the 'collector' areas for the business being smaller. Goods and services increase in costs slightly due to the inherent inefficiencies of a city relying entirely on alternative methods of transport.
Orlando has become the first American city to actually reverse the epidemic of obesity, and her major indicators of health will be substantially improved over those of other cities in Florida. Deaths that are attributable to DUI, reckless driving, distracted driving, air pollution and exposure to other risks carried by automobiles will be largely eliminated, driving up the average lifespan of her citizens substantially. Mild injuries would be up a fair amount, including broken bones and head injuries from reckless operation of bicycles, skateboards and e-scooters, but everyone could take solace in the fact that these are likely to be confined to the individual, and would be very unlikely to visit some unsuspecting bystander.
Car sharing and rental services are developed on the perimeter of the circle for city dwellers that wish to drive cross country outside of the city area, provided other means of travel are not preferred.
The traditional office and 9-to5 grind are slowly eliminated in favor of working remotely or from home. Several office buildings are converted into residential and retail spaces which ultimately yield more profit for real estate investors.
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